Hi everyone! New trades:
- 2025-10-08 +14 QLD @ $141.47
- 2025-12-02 +45 QLD @ $72.84
- 2025-12-30 +52 QLD @ $71.93
2025 recap: portfolio return roughly flat — surprising at first glance, since the USD return was around +25%, but the rouble strengthened from ~100 to ~80 over 2025, so in RUB terms the year ended near zero.
On the Russian economy: there's not much to add over what I wrote 6+ months ago. A large federal budget deficit (with possibly a couple of trillion shifted via accounting between 2025 and 2026 to stay within nominal limits), regional deficits over 1 trln officially and likely over 2 trln unofficially, high inflation, etc. I struggle to understand why the EGRN ownership data was hidden long ago, while officials publish income declarations of ~200k RUB while owning palaces and yachts. And on top of that the official statistics on inflation, budget and GDP are still being released. Better to just stop the charade — say "inflation is 3%, fixed", "the budget came in exactly as planned, we even earned more because the country is growing", "GDP +4–5%, ahead of Europe and the US". Done. Instead we get awkward fake reports, reshuffled methodology for inflation, pretending there is anything left.
About the portfolio: the strategy doesn't change. On strong drawdowns (e.g. when Trump-related volatility hit in March–May) I added to the more aggressive TQQQ; near new highs I add to QLD. As always, the public portfolio is here: Intelinvest.ru/public-portfolio/210131.