Good evening! New trades:
- 2024-11-21 +22 QLD @ $106.45
- 2025-01-21 +20 QLD @ $113.34
A bit late, but here's the 2024 recap. Comparing to MOEX is pointless — the Russian index returned a "generous" +2% (MCFTR brutto) in roubles for 2024, plus another -13% from rouble depreciation against USD. Meanwhile, in USD terms: QQQ +26%, QLD +42%, TQQQ +58%. My portfolio result for 2024: ~68% in roubles or ~48% in USD. I consider that an excellent year.
The plan stays the same: systematically build positions in US ETFs — QLD and TQQQ. Full portfolio: Intelinvest.ru/public-portfolio/210131.
The rouble is bouncing around like a low-cap altcoin: it briefly visited 115, now back near 95. My view hasn't changed — I expect 110+ either way, possibly significantly higher this year and into 2026. Hard to say what the trigger will be, but the rouble is holding adequate levels by sheer effort. The economy looks weak and is getting weaker. The liquid part of the NWF is nearly spent, and ideally the rest will be kept aside for a real emergency — for example if shadow-fleet sanctions start working better and selling oil becomes a real problem (oil is roughly 40% of the budget). Or if Trump pushes US production higher and reaches a deal with Saudi Arabia, sending Brent into the $50 area.
Overall, my approach is unchanged: keep adding to QLD and TQQQ when prices allow. Long-term I expect the result to be the same as the last several years — quality US tech compounds, leveraged versions amplify it.