Good evening! New trades, all in TQQQ:
- 2023-09-05 +73 @ $41.98
- 2023-10-12 +59 @ $38.75
- 2023-10-17 +8.5397 @ $37.94 (using accumulated dividends in IB)
The last few months I've become a really passive investor — barely tracking individual reports or specific stock news, and that's probably for the best. Apart from TCS, all other Russian/HK names are now around 1–2% of the book — basically rounding error — but I'll still do a thorough year-end roundup of every position.
USDRUB is clearly heading back above 100. Capital controls were reintroduced and there are reports that compliance officers will work inside specific companies to enforce the rules on selling FX. In theory it might work like it did in 2022; in practice I expect any rouble strengthening to be marginal. The same exporters who sell FX will likely buy it back somewhere else. Even if the measure works, the announced duration is 6 months — roughly until the next presidential election — after which the rate will likely be released to drift toward 120 and then "heroically" returned to 115. Same script as always 😃.
Recommendation hasn't changed. I was suggesting buying USD at 60 and FX-denominated assets — same suggestion now. If the rate goes up you're a winner; if it dips temporarily, you're still a winner long-term, since most of you are earning in roubles. Given the geopolitical situation, no one outside knows exactly how much is being spent on what and how it will play out for the economy and FX.
Portfolio:
- TQQQ — 77.62%
- TCS Group — 8.72%
- Zynex — 3.84%
- Yandex — 1.74%
- KWG — 1.06%
- Baidu — 0.89%
- Times — 0.89%
- Redsun — 0.69%