Hello!
New deal - again TQQQ 01/27/2023 - 203.9378 pcs. at 22.385 $
In general, I’m very glad that I managed to buy a little in a cheap dollar, because there is no good news on the horizon at all.
I propose to run through the numbers from official article of the Ministry of Finance. It is very strange that these data are still published at all; they would have been closed long ago along with the salaries of officials, they would have canceled the declaration of property, etc.
Oil and gas revenues -46.4%. Total income -35.1%. Expenses +58.7%. The numbers are absolutely amazing.
If in absolute terms, then in January 2023 they spent a minus 1153 billion more than in the same January 22. Some government purchases are included there, but it is quite obvious that these are expenses for missiles, military equipment, shells, fur coats for the wives of mobilized people, in a word, for defense needs. A total of 1 trillion was spent on defense needs. RUB, and this is for 1 calendar month - January 23. Incomes are tiny - 1,356 billion, expenses - 3,117. The deficit is 1,760 billion RUB, and this is for 1 month. Just think about these numbers. You can be as patriotic or unpatriotic as you like, but the deficit for the month amounted to more than 1.5 trillion. RUB.
There is no other way to cover expenses other than oil and gas. Oil and gas will not grow for all the obvious reasons; no one will buy anything from a country under sanctions, or they will, but at a big discount. Consequently, the only way to take money and somehow put out the fire in the budget is with the National Welfare Fund. For the summer of 21, according to Wikipedia there were about 13 trillion. Now it seems like about 10, that is, about 3 trillion have already been taken from there.
Using simple calculations, one can calculate that the remaining money, given current appetites and spending on “government procurement” for defense needs, may only be enough for a year. Then perhaps the gold and foreign exchange reserves accumulated by the head of the Central Bank will remain and be used, if they are still somehow liquid and not frozen in Europe. And in general we have countries with complex budgets.
The ruble no longer holds anything in general, neither the lack of imports, nor some ridiculous interventions by the head of the Central Bank through the yuan. I think it will be devalued, maybe gradually, maybe sharply to 100 and further, in order to somehow increase revenues from the sale of oil and gas. By the way, if you haven’t seen it yet and want to laugh, watch the interview with the head of the Central Bank on minimum wage - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eC3QkrAFXJQ&ab_channel=TinkoffPrivateTalks
In general, the situation is as deplorable as possible for the entire economy, for the national currency and for all of us who live and work in Russia. For the last six months, I have been advising and continue to advise anyone who has savings to withdraw it into foreign currency and withdraw it from the country - into stocks, crypto, anywhere, just not to keep Russian currency and Russian stocks. In my opinion, there is no point in believing in the rapid growth of Gazprom stocks.
Portfolio - (https://intelinvest.ru/public-portfolio/210131):
1) TQQQ - 59.86%
2) TCS Group - 11.01%
3) Zynex - 8.26%
4) Redsun - 4.95%
5) KWG - 3.06%
6) Yandex - 2.41%
7) Times - 1.99%
8) Baozun - 1.86%
9) Baidu - 1.52%
Ideas
February 16, 2023