Good afternoon!
Transactions that were mentioned and not published:
Apr 20. 2022 +19.5 pieces TQQQ ($50.4999 / piece)
May 18, 2022 +57.809 pieces TQQQ ($31.31 / piece)
In percentage terms, the portfolio is now as follows:
1) TCS Group - 26.6%
2) TQQQ - 12.85%
3) Redsun - 12.56%
4) Zynex - 9.88%
5) KWG - 9.26%
6) Times - 7.09%
7) Yandex - 5.28%
8) Baozun - 4.55%
9) Baidu - 2.62 %
10) HHR - 1.65%
The dismal results of selecting stocks of individual companies once again sent me to select funds so as not to depend on the performance of one particular company and the shock that its performance differs from what was predicted. I won’t look at the Russian market at all now - everything is simple here. Just look at the index RTS, which has been hanging around at the same level since 2006. That is, there is no growth at all over 15. If at the beginning of 2006 you had purchased $10k in cash dollars and sold it now, the result would have been the same as buying RTS for this equivalent in 2006. You can use Japan as an analogy, for example Nikkey 225, which cannot grow above the levels of the 90s, only there had previously been an increase of 20 times over the previous 20 years, it simply turned out to be a strong overvaluation, a bubble that gradually deflated. But the average results over 40 years are very steep. But of course we don’t have anything like that, our companies are barely growing, and the devaluation of the ruble is eating up our already modest income. All that remains for the Russian market is the choice of individual companies that will grow faster than the market and justify investments in them. Which again risks dependence on the performance of an individual company. Plus, I’ll return to my previous post above - in beautiful Russia, even a super company can cease to be like that. In 1 day.
To summarize, I am no longer considering investing in individual Russian companies. I will keep what I already have and follow the reports; no new positions are planned. Thanks to the disabled imports and the machinations of the Central Bank, the currency is now very expensive - at the time of writing, the dollar is 63.4, the euro is 66.63. For myself, I decided to actively purchase at current levels. If imports soon begin to revive and the dollar goes to a reasonable 80-100 RUB, this is generally ok - most of my portfolio is in assets in American and Hong Kong dollars. If by some miracle we go lower or stagnate at near-current levels, it will be even better; we will be able to buy even more stocks and imported goods, of which we have 90%. Although personally, I would now only bet on growth, and I don’t expect any 50 RUB per dollar, rather 80-90-100.
I highly recommend buying the dollar at current levels. And assets denominated in currency - funds, stocks (carefully) and crypto (very carefully). I am now considering American funds for myself. There is no longer access to them through Russian brokers, as they were blocked by the Belgian depository Euroclear. I am currently transferring dollars from the founder of Tinkoff to interactive brokers swift by transfer. On the premium tariff, dollar swift is free. You can transfer in RUB, in theory they should now also be received, and you can already buy dollars in RUB in IB itself (the rate is less favorable than in Tinkov, plus a commission for the transaction). Although with an increase in commissions for purchasing foreign currency from the founder of Tinkoff, the situation could change. At your own peril and risk, you can also buy stocks in IB, but do not forget about the risks - at a minimum, the Americans can block our transfers and I hope it doesn’t get to the point where the broker starts banning clients from the Russian Federation en masse.
Ideas
May 18, 2022