Nothing good has happened in terms of the economy and not only the economy over the past 2 months in the country. There are more sanctions on us than on Iran, and you can laugh at this, that we will only become stronger, etc., if it weren’t so sad. By the way, an excellent article was recently published about Iran, 40 years under sanctions - I dug deeper in terms of the growth of stocks and the Iranian market as a whole, in future posts I will try to tell in more detail, everything is ambiguous there and despite the huge inflation, their market has grown very strongly over the past 5-7 years.
Many companies in the world will no longer work with a bunch of our companies - Sberbank, VTB, Alfa, and not only banks. Apparently they don’t really want to buy Russian oil either, because the difference between Urals and Brent used to be a couple of dollars, now it’s 30.
The head of the Central Bank seems to have put out the fire with the ruble by introducing a 20% rate, blocking foreign capital and foreign capital. Foreign exchange earnings are required to be converted into RUB, imports have decreased significantly and, lo and behold, the ruble has grown. What happens next is the most interesting. To prevent the economy from collapsing and inflation not to be 20% every year, the rate will need to be lowered and the non-residents will need to be gradually released as well. Everything that happened has caused and will continue to cause enormous harm to the country and the economy, and the consequences will most likely not be immediate, but over time. In the end, exporters do not need a strong ruble. The price per barrel, subject to a fall in exports + a fall in the dollar exchange rate, needs to be leveled, and for this there is an excellent way, which we have witnessed all the time - devaluation of the ruble.
A dollar up to 80 is a gift that needs to be used. The long-term rate will be clearly higher, maybe 90 or 100 or 120 RUB. And in any case, all goods that are in one way or another dependent on imports (that is, almost everything that can be bought) will become more expensive (or have already become more expensive)). If you have free RUB, I recommend buying everything denominated in dollars (American or Hong Kong, euro, Swiss francs, etc.). Simply storing funds in dollars is not particularly interesting; you can buy any dollar assets, for example, American stocks or funds for American indices - SP500 or Nasdaq, cryptocurrency, etc. If you leave money in RUB, then investing in the Russian Federation stocks, which will grow exponentially, is simply risky to keep in deposits and savings accounts - the key rate and, accordingly, the rate on products will fall and you can miss the right moments to enter stocks, and the interest on the deposit will drop to a minimum.
3) Just the other day I became a qualified investor in the eyes of the founder of Tinkoff - by some miracle they counted me 6 million turnover over the last year. How they are counted, I still don’t understand, because according to my calculations, it was about a million transactions in stocks per year; perhaps all card transactions were counted, I don’t know. In any case, the Premium tariff and many instruments from various exchanges became available to me.
Unfortunately, according to technical support, settlements with the higher-level depository Euroclear have now been stopped (hello, restrictions!), so I cannot buy alternative instruments with my Premium. It’s good that there is Interactive Brokers.
Now I’m looking towards the TQQQ index - what it is and what it’s used with, I’ll look at it in the next posts, it’s already very voluminous.
Ideas
April 10, 2022