Ideas May 30, 2024

ETF or single stocks: how to choose

Most investors shouldn't be picking individual stocks. The data is consistent: a low-cost broad index outperforms the median active investor over time, mainly because of fees and behavior.

When ETFs win

  • You don't have time or interest to read 10-Ks and earnings transcripts.
  • You're early in your investing life and just need exposure, not stock-picking glory.
  • You want one-decision exposure to a megatrend (AI, clean energy, EM).

When single names make sense

  • You actively follow a specific company and have a real edge in understanding it.
  • You enjoy the process and treat the side-bet portion of your book as a hobby, not a retirement plan.

My split

~95% of my book is index-based (TQQQ + QLD on the Nasdaq 100). The rest is a long tail of legacy single-name positions I no longer add to. The conclusion: pick the strategy you can stick with for ten years, not the one that sounds smartest at a dinner party.